Woodstock Saturday 11/7

[Matthew]

The rain has been taken out of the various forecasts for Saturday. And there is an 18 DEGREE TEMPERATURE DROP from Friday to Saturday.

The wind casts show only NW 5-10.

However, the 18 DEGREE TEMPERATURE DROP would indicate otherwise.

Looks like a Big Boy Honkin' Woodstock day to me.

Matthew

[markc]

I'll believe it on Friday!

Or maybe not even until SaturdayAM, when I consult the weather stone.

[XCanytime]

I hear you on that one Matthew. However, it has a few times in the past, followed the lighter forecast with similar temp drops. I remember being amazed that the breeziness just wasn't there. So we'll just have to wait and see. BTW precip has been added to the forecast overnight and into the early AM. Bacil

[markc]

Another data point: The ADDS 3k is calling for strong conditions (20-30 kts) by 7pm on Sat for MD and NoVA. Course, sometimes that translates into a WS day, and sometimes it doesn't. Me? I'm using the stone from now on!

[XCanytime]

I'm theorizing that the surface blob of colder air is oozing forward slowly rather than plowing forward faster to explain the lighter surface forecast. Like I said, there have been a few times that the actual conditions following a +/- 20 degree temp drop have followed the light surface forecast.
Bacil

[markc]

Darn it! Looks like we can't create a poll from within an existing topic....

If we could, I'd suggest a "Pulpit-vs-Woodstock" smack-down/winner-take-all/what's-it-gonna-be? poll.

And those who chime in, but lose, have to buy the post-flight bevs for those who win!!!

MarkC

[markc]

Hmmm... The isobars to the west of the front are pretty relaxed (as of Thurs night), which could support Bacil's theory:

Matthew?

[Matthew]

As of Friday morning 11/6, wind barbs for High Rock are a solid 10 NW all day.

The front has already reached WV.

MIght be a good day to do some more cliff launches.

Matthew

[XCanytime]

The front is predicted to be directly over the HGR valley after sunset. That would match up with the forecasted 7P throttleup of the upper level winds. The Pulpit and High Rock should be working all day. Take your pick. Bacil

[Dave Gills]

[andybalkphysics]

I don't care where we go as I will shamelessly follow the crowd like a sheep but I am emotionally committed to the idea of a pulpit vs Woodstock smack down.

[bowen.tim]

I vote for High Rock, even thou it wasn't one of the choices. I would go to the Pulpit if that is the consensus.

[Dave Gills]

I could do the Pulpit

[Matthew]

Leaning towards the Rock as the forecast is NW and it's always so damn North cross at the Pulpit when the forecast is NW.

Matthew

[dbodner]

So far I'm liking High Rock. If that's the call, I'll probably take a morning sledder at Smithsburg, then head on up.

[XCanytime]

One point of this whole exercise is to NOT follow the crowd and make your own decisions. It's part of the education and the progression of the pilot. You are cheating yourself out of acquiring a valuable skillset if you just follow the crowd. Matthew makes a great point in that, yes, when it's predicted to be NW, that it can be real north at times at the Pulpit. However, my gut says it will be more WNW than NW. Like I said, both sites should be working, so why not do something different and broaden your experience. Bacil

[markc]

The cloud cover as of tomorrow AM will probably decide things for me. One cast implies nearly full cloud cover at HR tomorrow, and NNW and sunny at HR on Sunday.... Maybe Sunday would be the better choice for that site? Who knows.... The stone will tell the tale!

[dbodner]

Oops! I need to work on my reading comprehension. I thought we were talking about Sunday.

[markc]

Well, that front certainly isn't barrelling through! Rain just clearing out at the Pulpit, rain at HR and WS, clouds back to Cleveland... Not exactly an inspiring morning. I guess it might be worth watching for a few hours, to see how quickly things move.

And if not today : Cross fingers that the NNW holds at High Rock for Sunday? Sure looks like the better day.

MarkC

[Matthew]

Still looks good to me for HR this afternoon.

Matthew

[Matthew]

Waiting-- watching-- making a decision mid-morning.

Anyone else?

Matthew

[Kelvin Pierce]

I'm considering it as well if there is enough interest.
Kelvin

[mcgowantk]

I am interested in going out today too. I wish the rain would move out a little faster!

Tom McGowan

[dbodner]

My other activity fell through today, so I think I'll do a couple of test flights at Smithsburg. So, I should be in the area, anyway.

[Matthew]

Walt is almost at Smithsburg at 9:45am.

It's raining here again in DC.

If rain ends here in DC by 11am, Karen and I will head on up to the Rock.

Will post again at 11am.

Matthew