NOAA Winter Prediction

Post by **Matthew** » Fri Oct 19, 2007 3:39 pm

NOAA predicts a warmer than average winter with continued drought.

See-- http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories200 ... tlook.html

This means it's gonna be f'ing cold with lots of snow. This is great new for skiers and boarders. I've been following their long range forecasts for years and they are always completely wrong. They also predicted a very active hurricane season for 2007. Yep.

Matthew

jimrooney · Post by **jimrooney** » Fri Oct 19, 2007 3:46 pm

Since we track everything these days... it would be rather interesting to see a prediction vs reality graph. Put some numbers on just how far off the predictions are :)

Yeah, most active hurricane season on record! (did we have any?)

Post by **Matthew** » Fri Oct 19, 2007 4:06 pm

I did an article on the weather for Washingonain a few years ago. For two months I kept track of the 7 day, 5 day, 3 day, 2 day, next day and 'day of' predictions from NOAA, Accuweather, the Weather Channel and the four major TV stations in DC. NOAA consistently had the worse forecasts. Accuweather was most accurate. And I was just tracking temps and rain. Not wind. At about 48 hours, most services could get the high and low temps down to within a few degrees. Anything further out was crap. Long range stuff is still mostly based upon histirical data. Their use of ocean temps, such as El Nino, for long, long range forecasts doesn't seem to work.

Matthew