Woodstock on a SW day? He crazy!!!

[markc]

Ok, so I'm looking at upcoming work, holiday, and travel tasks, when
it hits me that tomorrow might be my last chance to fly in 2006. Urk!

NWS says "gusts up to 20 mph" for the Pulpit, which seems iffy...

And the 3k ADDS forecast seems to agree that it will be strong aloft.
See the 18hr and 24hr forecasts at http://adds.aviationweather.noaa.gov/winds/

So I'm wondering if a spin out to Woodstock might be called for,
in the hopes that there might be W rather than SW at launch level.

Am I totally nutso????

Who else wants to gamble (somewhere!) on flying tomorrow?

MarkC

[John Simon]

I want to fly... not so often I get a shot. I like Pulpit as I see 255 degrees at 8-10.... but I am a novice at such things. I'll be happy to go to the 'stock, but there are plenty of guys more experienced than I to make the call for the best site. Should be ready to leave around 10:30.

John

[mcelrah]

Can someone explain to me why this isn't a good forecast for Daniel's? - Hugh

[XCanytime]

Mark,
You are suffering from TMD (too much data) . Forecasting is not an exact science. I would think that one would want to be at a site that has the least crossing wind for the day, i.e. the Pulpit, just for the sheer safety factor.

Bacil

[XCanytime]

Hugh,
If there is any west in the air at Daniels, you do not want to be flying there. The rotor off of the spine to the west of launch makes the air around launch very turbulent and not fun. Lots of folks have sworn not to fly Daniels ever again after experiencing such conditions.

Bacil

[carweill]

Bacil and Mark

I agree too much data, but I would still favor Woodstock.
This is not on weather experience but on the gambling side.

I'll plan to head out if there is someone else on the gambling mode.

I'll check in about an hour

Carlos

[Flying Lobster]

Can someone explain to me why this isn't a good forecast for Daniel's? - Hugh

Looks reasonable to me--except that Dr Jack shows a pretty meager lapse rate most everywhere. But it does look like winds will be lighter and more southerly down there.

marc

[mcelrah]

Yeah, Mark, I was also hoping to involve the PG/biwingual community, who seem to be boycotting the forum.

Bacil,
Thanks! I remembered that there was a caveat about Daniel's but didn't remember what it was.

Making slow progress toward loading the vehicle pending consensus on where to go. Trike ride, anybody? (Not if it's too bouncy.)

- Hugh

[markc]

The morning Dulles balloon reports 18kts at 265 degrees.

That's definitely lighter than yesterday's 3k forecast was
predicting.... And the NWS surface 'cast has gotten rid of
the gust factor. So....

Forget crazy!!! Pulpit anyone?

MarkC

[markc]

Pulpit bound right now! Come on out and fly John S, it'll be
a much better day than the Fly-In!

MarkC

[carweill]

Well it looks like Pulpit is the place to try.

ETA around noon

Carlos

[markc]

TMD?

More like TMW! (Too-Much-Wind)

In spite of what seemed to me like relatively light winds aloft from
the AM balloon, it was blowing at the Pulpit. We set up, we
hung around, winds hit 20-30 by noon, and they were gusting higher
by the time we broke down and hit the road for High Rock.

Conditions at the Rock were variable, sometimes light, sometimes
fairly strong and cross. Winds in the valley were clearly WSW, if
not SW.

I really lucked out late in the day: After resigning myself to a sled when
we started seeing protracted 5mph lulls, I launched into a pretty darn
good cycle, and not long into the flight the winds in the valley switched
to NW. And wow, did it get SWEET!

Just me and John were up, and we were throwing our gliders all
over the sky, spiralling, wangs and wingovers, straffing launch from
out front and from behind, chasing after each other. Even played tag
with a redtail for about 10 minutes, and I think John got to do the same.
One of the most fun flights I've ever had!

Big thanks to Hugh, Rhonda, and Mike: they ran both our vehicles
down to the LZ so that we could enjoy sunset without worrying about
the MPs closing the gate.

Still friggin' psyched about the day, can't sleep yet....

MarkC

[John Simon]

Made it over to Hi Rock Sunday with Mark, Hugh, Mike and Rhonda. Blowing a bit hard initially so Hugh and Mike launched and they agreed to land after a while and come crew for us. It was not so easy though, as Mike Lee scratched very, very hard and long to be rewarded with and extendo. Man he worked that ridge, but no luck. Hugh struggled for a bit then got a few hundred over? and stuck for a while. He graciously heads out to land after a short flight.
Mark and I wait on the rock and it appears to be weakening significantly. At one point we both resign ourselves to sleds and decalre zero chance of it going magic. 30-40 minutes later I am waiting for it to pick up a bit so I can launch and have a shot. I dive out a bit and immediately begin climbing. I work the small area just left of launch thinking this is my only chance... Hah! As get some 'tude, I begin to search around and it turns out you can't find anything but lift.
Mark and I flew for about 45 minutes or so in smooth and widespread lift with 2 hawks and lots of spectators on the rock. Gorgeous, warm blue sky and a beautiful sunset. We beat up the launch numberous times and finally landed to the south in the LZ.
I was greeted by Mike and Rhonda who have retrieved our vehicles and are packing a cold six pack! NICE!

Thanks so much to all for launching me and the beer. Great day.

John

[mcelrah]

Gorgeous winter day. Warm - I was overdressed for in the air - bar mitts unnecessary. Pig shit thermals over the LZ. What's not to like?! - Hugh

[lbunner]

I haven't flown the Pulpit or High Rock but would like to learn more about the local conditions. Why does it seem to blow out at the Pulpit yet not too far away at High Rock the conditions are much more mellow?

Bun

[XCanytime]

What's your email address Larry?

Thanks,
Bacil