Since the administration cannot figure out a way out of the mess they've gotten us into--and since Marco has repeatedly asked for an alternative plan, I am offering one up that in my humble Napoleanic opinion is probably the only realistic way to end the drain on our military, economy and the nation's morale.
The underlying reason the administration cannot solve this situation is based upon the historic and cultural incompatiblities in the region which they cannot understand. The notion of forming a representative democracy that will happily bind the Sunni's, Kurds and Shia is about as likely to happen as having a three-way union of parties as far apart as the Palestinians and Isrealis.
Lacking a strong-man autocratic regime to forcefully hold the country together (i.e. another Saddam--or worse) the only way to get our troops out and forestall a total collapse into civil war is to divide the country up into 3 semi-autonomous regions, the complicated part being how to divvy up the country's wealth in natural resources (in other words, the oil). This deal would have to be brokered with involvement of key western and Arab nations--some of the same ones we gave the finger to before invading. France and Russia, for example, have long-standing deals with Iraq and have strategic interest in seeing some kind of stability return to the region. UN forces would need to be brought in to serve as buffers between the three rival regions--with US forces being withdrawn "over the horizon" as Murtha put it. The threat of US intervention, unfortunately, will likely have to be maintained in the region indefinitely. Not because we will need to unilaterally support the fledgeling Iraqi governments--but because the region is permanently destabilized as a result of our premature intervention. The real problem, in the long term, will likely be controlling Iran and Syria from exerting hegemony into the former Iraqi nation and allowing terrorism to be incubated in the region and exported to the world.
So there you have it, Marco. Feel free to e-mail this to your friends at the White House.
marcoHasAPlanNow
Plan for getting out of Iraq
Moderator: CHGPA BOD
Plan for getting out of Iraq
To Marc Fink:
Thanks for your constructive series of e-mails on this forum. I
have been impressed by the at least verbal commitment of educated
Iraqi politicians from all three (or more - there are the Zaidis,
Christians, etc.) ethnic groups to a united Iraq, so I guess they
deserve a chance to make a go of it. It is probably a long shot and
the three-way split will likely come out of the (already begun, in
spite of U.S. presence) civil war. The Kurds already have a
functioning autonomous government - have had for a dozen years,
courtesy of Operation Northern Watch (U.S. air cover for no-Iraqi-fly
zone under Saddam). Even if they get the oil around Mosul, they are
land-locked, with a hostile Turkey and Iran looming - so I guess
that's why their politicians have served in the transitional Iraqi
government, arguably supplying its technocratic backbone. Perhaps
removing the common enemy/foreign occupier (US!) will allow all the
Iraqis to see more clearly that Zarqawi, the Saddamists, and the
foreign jihadists are their real enemies.
- Hugh
Thanks for your constructive series of e-mails on this forum. I
have been impressed by the at least verbal commitment of educated
Iraqi politicians from all three (or more - there are the Zaidis,
Christians, etc.) ethnic groups to a united Iraq, so I guess they
deserve a chance to make a go of it. It is probably a long shot and
the three-way split will likely come out of the (already begun, in
spite of U.S. presence) civil war. The Kurds already have a
functioning autonomous government - have had for a dozen years,
courtesy of Operation Northern Watch (U.S. air cover for no-Iraqi-fly
zone under Saddam). Even if they get the oil around Mosul, they are
land-locked, with a hostile Turkey and Iran looming - so I guess
that's why their politicians have served in the transitional Iraqi
government, arguably supplying its technocratic backbone. Perhaps
removing the common enemy/foreign occupier (US!) will allow all the
Iraqis to see more clearly that Zarqawi, the Saddamists, and the
foreign jihadists are their real enemies.
- Hugh
Marc,
Sorry I didn't respond to this previously, but I thought your plan was not plausible to be used IMMEDIATELY, or even in the short term. My challenge was what to do NOW to improve and speed our prospects for victory.
I see no reason to bypass the democratic process now underway in Iraq, and as I have stated in the past, if democracy does fail, my "Plan B" has always been the partition option, ie dividing Iraq into three separate countries, so we are not that far apart on this option, other than when to institute it.
But I don't think this partition is a better plan than the current democratic plan. And I don't think we should have the French and Russians stewarding the partition process...in fact I cannot think of two countries who would be a worse choice than these two. The UN could help out, I suppose, but I doubt they will be all that helpful.
So, well done on this proposal, at least it is a serious option and plan, just premature given the current situation IMHO.
Marco
Sorry I didn't respond to this previously, but I thought your plan was not plausible to be used IMMEDIATELY, or even in the short term. My challenge was what to do NOW to improve and speed our prospects for victory.
I see no reason to bypass the democratic process now underway in Iraq, and as I have stated in the past, if democracy does fail, my "Plan B" has always been the partition option, ie dividing Iraq into three separate countries, so we are not that far apart on this option, other than when to institute it.
But I don't think this partition is a better plan than the current democratic plan. And I don't think we should have the French and Russians stewarding the partition process...in fact I cannot think of two countries who would be a worse choice than these two. The UN could help out, I suppose, but I doubt they will be all that helpful.
So, well done on this proposal, at least it is a serious option and plan, just premature given the current situation IMHO.
Marco