On divining for weather forecasts.

[Dan T]

In my experience we worry much to much about the weather forecasts. Most
forecasters must though necessity address a relatively large area and local
conditions can vary by a fair amount, especially over the short term. If you are
choosing not to fly because the predominant forecast is 45 degrees or a few mph
off of the ideal you are undoubtably missing some very pleasant flying days.

Every weekend leaves us with just a few decisions. First to attempt to fly
or not. This question can be answered by asking "what will I do if I don't go
try?" If it's do the dishes or clean out the basement the decision is a
no-brainer. The second question is "where should I go?"

When Marc Fink still lived in the area, I would simply watch the server to
see where he was going and follow him. I don't think that technique ever
failed. That was all the weather I ever needed to know.

Matthew may not be as thorough in his analysis as Marc, but he will rarely
call the Pulpit wrong, nor will Bacil within 48 hours or so of the event. If
they are saying it's good to go, it's a pretty good bet you are going to have a
good time if you show up and you are going to wish you showed up if you don't.

Have fun, fly safe.
Dan T.

PS, Give yourself a little extra safety margin on those less than ideal days.