Woodstock Tues 10-21

[theflyingdude]

Funny...reading through the thread I saw H2's first asking if it might be okay conditions, then deciding BY THEMSELVES it wouldn't be okay, THEN a bunch of more experienced pilots piling on saying they were being unsafe. They'd already decided not to fly, guys!

All they did is go through the normal pilot weather cycle of hopeful, hopeful....aw rats. Lecturing was a little uncalled for.

Er...um...not exactly, Brian. Dan started the thread on Monday asking if anyone was thinking about going to Woodstock on Tuesday. After Janni replied, "I am", I posted the weather.com forecast for Woodstock that day (WNW 20 - 30 mph with a chance of showers). Janni was undeterred by and dismissive of the forecast ("Bollocks, who's going"). Then you had the H2's wondering whether it would be do-able, but willing to go if there was an Observer present or liking the NOAA forecast better (a strong, but not as strong forecast). A couple of more experienced pilots chimed in, agreeing that the conditions did look strong for Woodstock on Tuesday. Lo and behold, Tuesday rolled around and it was blown out so no one went to Woodstock that day.

I don't think Dan or Tony were being unsafe. If "thinking" about flying on a strong day is considered being unsafe, I think we're all guilty as charged. Tom McGowan is absolutely right and I've said it many times myself - you don't know, if you don't go. But, it's those marginally safe days when the decision on whether to launch or not isn't as obvious and becomes very much a judgment call. That's why we have an Observer program and why Woodstock is rated H2 with an Observer present. BTW, Dan and Tony, there are a couple H2 w/Observer flying sites near Cumberland (Zirks and Fairgrounds) if you ever get up this way. I'm an Observer and the most local pilot, so drop me PM if you're interested.

JR

[brianvh]

yeah, okay...I kinda skipped to the middle where people started writing in paragraphs. I take back about half of what I said.

[XCanytime]

Tuesday's weather conditions were not one of those days of a 10 to 20 or a 15 to 20 forecast and the Woodstock Gradient Effect reducing the winds on launch. That only occurs during post frontal conditions, usually many hours after a front has passed through and the winds are predicted to subside as the high pressure moves in. Tuesday's winds ramping up during the day were prefrontal winds, driven solely by pressure differential. A look at the surface pressure map on the Weather Channel website showed this. The temperature did not drop during the day. The actual cold front was predicted to pass through midday, yet it did not actually pass over the Shenandoah Valley until after sunset. The national surface pressure map available on the Weather Channel website gives you the current surface pressure map and also the predicted pressure system movement for the evening, the next morning, and the next midday hours. This critical piece of information was available on Monday afternoon, and would have shown that Tuesday at Woodstock would have been not worth the trip.

Bacil