Pulpit Fly-In Weather Predictions?

Scott · Post by **Scott** » Mon Sep 12, 2005 9:27 am

Okay, let's hear your fly-in weather predictions: will Ophelia be a total non-event? Will it be long gone---with beautiful, fair weather, NW winds and high pressure prevailing? In other words, will it be "just another hurricane scare that amounts to nothing for us?"

I've volunteered to drive up and mow the site this week, which I can still do regardless (looking at doing it Thursday, unless it's pouring rain).

Are there any contingency plans? Or will those be made last-minute, Friday afternoon?

Scott

Spark · Post by **Spark** » Mon Sep 12, 2005 7:06 pm

Based on the fact that I have Friday afternoon off and am obliged to attend a soccer game in Frederick on Saturday afternoon, I'll bet the weather sucks on Friday and is great on Saturday

I plan to camp at the Pulpit on Friday night and return on Saturday late afternoon, regardless of the weather.

drice21037 · Post by **drice21037** » Mon Sep 12, 2005 7:45 pm

I will also be camping somewhere on Friday. Probably the Pulpit unless
there's a good reason to camp somewhere else, like the wind blowing
straight in at 10-15 from noon until dark. There seems to be a lot of
uncertainty in the forecast. We'll see.

Dave

-----Original Message-----
From: Spark [mailto:BagPipeFlyer@hotmail.com]
Sent: Monday, September 12, 2005 7:07 PM
To: hg_forum@chgpa.org
Subject: Pulpit Fly-In Weather Predictions?

Based on the fact that I have Friday afternoon off and am obliged to
attend a soccer game in Frederick on Saturday afternoon, I'll bet the
weather sucks on Friday and is great on Saturday [Wink]

I plan to camp at the Pulpit on Friday night and return on Saturday late
afternoon, regardless of the weather.'Spark 301-462-8320
http://community.webshots.com/user/sparkozoid

Scott · Post by **Scott** » Mon Sep 12, 2005 7:52 pm

Just got back from the Pulpit, where I weed-whacked the entire "hang out area" (all around/between the pavilion, picnic tables, fire ring etc.) plus a wide buffer beyond and down to the parking lot---looks a lot better! I may go back later this week with my push mower and cut the setup field...but it's not bad as-is.

Scott

Post by **markc** » Tue Sep 13, 2005 1:26 am

I plan to take the day off on Friday, and will be camping at
the Pulpit that night. Bringing wood and other flammables

Also trying to convince a few friends to come out on Saturday.

Thanks for all the cleanup work Scott! Sounds like I shouldn't
bother bringing a weed whacker Friday...

--mark

Scott · Post by **Scott** » Tue Sep 13, 2005 10:06 am

The forecast looks good so far...here's the latest NOAA discussion...

Latest mref data suggests Ophelia will make closest pass to the region late Thursday off the New Jersey coast...possibly bringing showers to eastern half of the state. Meanwhile...drier air high pressure will be building eastwrd from the Great Lakes...pushing cooler/drier air into western PA...data showing ridge of hi pressure building over the area Friday through Sunday...bringing a stretch of fair and seasonable weather.

Scott

Post by **Gene** » Tue Sep 13, 2005 3:09 pm

I would like to be in good weather but my job is weathering, whether to work or fly.

Once again I will be TDY abroad. Glasgow for a few days then one day in Luxembourg. Just not my year for flying. Keep the posts coming, my thread to sanity. Gene

Scott · Post by **Scott** » Tue Sep 13, 2005 3:26 pm

Just returned from the Pulpit, where I finished the job I started yesterday (this time with the push mower!). Most of the setup/camping area is now "front-yard-friendly!" (I left the taller grass on the hillside alone.)

BTW, the local birdwatching club will be having an organized hawk count at the Pulpit this Saturday too---so there will be plenty of them around as well.

Scott

Post by **Matthew** » Wed Sep 14, 2005 9:34 am

Curent Bay Forecast (Wed. morning 9/14).

ANZ535-536-142030-
/X.EXT.KLWX.SC.Y.0025.050915T1200Z-050915T2200Z/
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM INDIAN HEAD TO COBB ISLAND-
426 AM EDT WED SEP 14 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING TO
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

TODAY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING...BECOMING E 5 TO
10 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WAVES 1 FT OR LESS. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

TONIGHT
NE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. WAVES 1 FT OR LESS. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS.

THU
N WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. WAVES 1 TO 2 FT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

THU NIGHT
N WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. WAVES 1 FT.

FRI
N WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. WAVES 1 FT OR LESS. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

FRI NIGHT
N WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. WAVES 1 FT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

SAT
NW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. WAVES 1 FT.

SUN
W WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. WAVES 1 FT.

Keep your fingers crossed.

Matthew

Post by **breezyk1d** » Thu Sep 15, 2005 7:47 am

Not sure how to post the link but the NOAA 48 hour forecast frontal map below indicates Ophelia may be providing us with N/NE winds on Sat. IMH, unperfected weather reading, O: Unless she picks up speed, we won't get the Northwest winds from her backside?. -Linda

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/98f.gif

Post by **Matthew** » Thu Sep 15, 2005 8:56 am

See--

http://www.usairnet.com/cgi-bin/launch/ ... t+Forecast

Matthew

Scott · Post by **Scott** » Thu Sep 15, 2005 9:26 am

I'm hoping the stars align and elements converge for NW winds. The latest NOAA forecast discussion is a bit of a downer...

Low pressure over southern plains will track NE towards PA tonight...spreading rain into the region Friday. Steadiest rain likely to fall over northern tier near baroclinic zone. Further south...showers and possible thunder. Showery weather likely to last through Saturday as upper low tracks over the region.

00Z MREF data shows ridge building into the region...supplying fair/seasonable weather Sunday.

Scott

Scott · Post by **Scott** » Fri Sep 16, 2005 6:37 am

Anyone more knowledgable, please weigh in! The latest NOAA discussions point to near-definite rain today:

The wettest day of the month so far is in store for most of Central PA...consensus forecast of both NAM and GFS suggest .5 to 1" of rain across most of Central PA with locally higher amounts over 1.5" likely.

On the other hand, Saturday might be soarable, even if there isn't much thermal activity...NOAA's call is for a remaining chance of small showers, and west winds@5-10.

We thought Sunday would be great...but now it's looking like more of a crapshoot...with a call of north@5 becoming SE. (Could be a Bill's day?)

The "little arrows" on LaunchCode's forecast, on the other hand, suggest happy W-NW winds all weekend...go figure. (I'd still love to know why all these forecasts differ so much?)

Bottom line: definitely come prepared for rain today/tonight/tomorrow.

Scott

Post by **Matthew** » Fri Sep 16, 2005 8:25 am

Ugh! The NOAA text forecast has been the most consistenty unreliable forecast ever since I started watching the weather. It's the last thing you should ever consider. Look at intellicast, the meteograms, the MRF, the ADDs and Accuweather.

It's gonna be cloudy tomorow morning (Sat), then clearing up and W-NW winds all weekend.

Matthew

Scott · Post by **Scott** » Fri Sep 16, 2005 8:39 am

Really? You've been watching forecasts longer than I, so point taken. I don't get it though...can someone (Jim Keller?) tell me why the "lowest common denominator" commercial weather sources (weather.com, Accuweather, etc.) are more accurate than the "behind-the-scenes" reports made by meteorologists??? This makes NO sense.

Honestly---this makes the science of meteorology look bad, suggesting it's more guesswork than science and that anyone who can look at the sky can be called a meteorologist!

And I'm STILL waiting for a good explanation for why so many weather sources (for the same location) differ so much. The various sources are rarely in agreement!

Anyway, I hope it will be happy NW winds all weekend!

Scott

Spark · Post by **Spark** » Fri Sep 16, 2005 9:30 am

Scott wrote: ...
Honestly---this makes the science of meteorology look bad, suggesting it's more guesswork than science and that anyone who can look at the sky can be called a meteorologist!
...
Scott

I've spun my wheels so many times focusing on weather prognostications, it has worn my tread thin.

Since it is a fly in, the decision process I use is: Am I going to attend, or not? I recall the weather sucked last year and I had a great time sitting at the fire.

When forecasts do not agree I think we have a tendency to believe the forecasts that favor our preferred sites ... then the process becomes less science and more like _____ ?

Maybe I am superstitious, but it seems that the less (and later) I focus on the weather forecasts, the better the flying conditions are. Kinda reverse-murphy psychology/voodoo ...

Does anyone have a live chicken they can bring to the Pulpit tonight?

Post by **hepcat1989** » Fri Sep 16, 2005 9:47 am

I'll bring the bag of MOJO to shake. Ahhhhh, I gots to get the F*#k off here, and take my walk!!! Shawn.

Post by **brianvh** » Fri Sep 16, 2005 10:35 am

I won't claim to be really more knowledgable since forecasting isn't my
thing, but when the forecasts change so much from day to day it means the
system is inherently unpredictable. The amount of sensitivity in the
system is not constant, so if the forecast for the weekend stays
consistent for several models tuesday and wednesday, it's not very
sensitive and you can probably trust the forecast. If it changes, it is
sensitive and you may as well wait until friday to look at the forecast.
This is also indicated by ensemble forecasts, which I've posted about
before.

Brian Vant-Hull
301-646-1149

On Fri, 16 Sep 2005, Scott wrote:

>
> Anyone more knowledgable, please weigh in! The latest NOAA discussions point to near-definite rain today:
>

bustedwing2 · Post by **bustedwing2** » Fri Sep 16, 2005 1:27 pm

I've found that sticking my head out the window works fairly well.

TQ · Post by TQ » Sat Sep 17, 2005 10:28 am

The default LaunchCode forecast comes straight from the 'model output
statistics' (MOS) product. It takes raw output from the 'Aviation'
numerical weather prediction (NWP) model and adjusts its values by
statistical methods in an objective attempt to improve the forecast.
LaunchCode can also display MOS from the erroneously named 'Environmental'
NWP model. There's also MOS from the Nested Grid Model (NGM) but it's not
available at LaunchCode. There's a 'local' MOS product (LAMP) that's has
one-hour forecasts.

< http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/synop/produ ... rm.all.htm >
< http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/lamp/bullform.html >

MOS decoder:
< http://weather.cod.edu/notes/fous.html >

As for why the forecasts differ so much; different models produce different
forecasts. Some models systematically move fronts faster than others do.
Some models systematically predict higher wind speeds than others do. Some
models systematically predict lower dew points than others do. It's up to
the forecast meteorologist to decide which model is most likely to be most
representative of the prevailing weather conditions during the forecast
period.

As you can probably imagine, some forecasters put more effort into making
forecasts than other do. Some forecasters always go with MOS and some
forecasters always go with a particular NWP model's raw output and some
forecasters actually use all NWP output as guidance before deciding what's
most likely to happen.

-----Original Message-----
From: Scott [mailto:sw@shadepine.com]
Sent: Friday, September 16, 2005 06:37 a.m.
To: hg_forum@chgpa.org
Subject: Pulpit Fly-In Weather Predictions?

The "little arrows" on LaunchCode's forecast, on the other hand, suggest
happy W-NW winds all weekend...go figure. (I'd still love to know why all
these forecasts differ so much?)

Scott

TQ · Post by TQ » Sat Sep 17, 2005 12:38 pm

Not so much the whole science (observation, hypothesis testing, theory, and
prediction) of meteorology looks bad. It's the prediction component that is
often deficient.

-----Original Message-----
From: Spark [mailto:BagPipeFlyer@hotmail.com]
Sent: Friday, September 16, 2005 09:31 a.m.
To: hg_forum@chgpa.org
Subject: Pulpit Fly-In Weather Predictions?

Scott wrote:
...
Honestly---this makes the science of meteorology look bad, suggesting it's
more guesswork than science and that anyone who can look at the sky can be
called a meteorologist!
...
Scott
(end of quote)

chgpa.org