Flying on Sun08Feb : Daniel's Reprise?

[markc]

Argh, there was a 14G21 at CHO 3pm Sat. Where the heck did that come from? Sigh.

Looking light again on Sun for the hangies, but supposedly mostly sunny, and even warmer than today. If that holds with the AM forecasts, I might be willing to take the gamble.

Anyone else? Sounds like at least Jesse Y is considering it....

MarkC

[jyoder111]

Will make the call in the am. Trying to fight off a headcold or flu or something.

Jesse

[jyoder111]

Don't know what to make of the forecast. Looks light again on some sites but then nostepper strong west winds at altitude. I'm leaning towards bailing once again.

What do you think?

Jesse

[markc]

The ADDS 3k is strongish, but seems to go solid SW by 2pm. Max SFC upped to 10mph, better than yesterday. Looking at the IR sat loop, the clouds down there seem to be sticking/regenerating along the Blue Ridge. That last makes me wonder if the 'mostly sunny' will come to pass. Bottom line: a bit on the fence, still debating.

[jyoder111]

I'm out. Just not feeling it today. Good luck if you go!

Jesse

[markc]

Oh no, I was hoping that a young and motivated pilot would override my whining about the clouds, the long drive, etc etc. Hmmmm....

Anyone heard of others who plan to be there? 65 degrees, first week of Feb, that's tough to ignore!

[Dan T]

Yesterday we saw winds from zero to 5 mph, a full cloud deck nearly all day. We never saw the 7 to 9 that was forecasted, anything resembling gusts of any significance, or much of the sun. We all flew, some of us two or three times, and we were all happy to be on the hill rather than sitting home thinking about it.

Today the surface forecast is calling for a transition from cloudy to partly cloudy, sixty degrees and SSW to SW winds at 7-9. If this actually occurs it's going to be a very nice day at Daniels today. Of course I could be wrong but in my opinion the odds of it being not safely flyable because of strong winds aloft are minimal. A bigger concern for the HG pilot side of me would be that the cloud cover will once again shut the upslope flow down producing difficult light wind conditions on launch and very little thermal activity.

Randy flew his HG yesterday. He managed a perfect very light wind launch by keeping his angle of attack just right and running like a you know what. Anything less would not have worked.

[rlweber]

I did venture out today. At launch wind was gusting to 20+. Decided to take out the hg because there were long launchable periods of 8-12 mph.The launch was the exact opposite of yesterday. Three steps and I was off. It was rock and roll in the sky. At times my ground speed looked like 'i was flying the pg in high winds. There was a mild west cross which I believe added to the turbulence. I was also hesitant to get too high for fear of encountering more of a west cross. I landed after 30 minutes because the fun factor was not very high. The wind in the lz was light. It was a beautiful day. Justin was also present but left his pg in the sack.
Randy

[Dan T]

Wow what a contrast from the day before. I would have never guessed it from the Sunday morning forecast and conditions I saw the day before. I guess it just goes to show you never know until you go.

[markc]

Wow, I am surprised as well. The rule of thumb from many a Daniel's day past is that it always seems to be blowing far less than forecast, much like WS. I can't think of a day with a SFC of 5-10 when it was gusting to 20. In, like, 20 years!

Maybe the upper level forecasts are more accurately reflecting conditions at the site than before?