Flying Saturday 12/27

[Matthew]

Hmmm-- Sunny and 59 degrees in Stanardsville on Saturday. Warm weather bodes a southerly flow. Anyone thinking of Daniel's on Saturday???

Matthew

[wmelo]

if the wind improves for HGs, I would love to go. walt

[George]

Maybe Pulpit?

George

[Matthew]

Huh?

Forecast for Saturday is SSW 5-10.

Pulpit is West.

Matthew

[George]

You are correct my bad I was looking at early Friday, not Saturday. West with even a touch of North to it.

George

[Matthew]

So????

Any thoughts on wind velocity for Daniel's on Saturday????

Direction and temps look great.

Matthew

[jmcrocker]

The GSF model forecast I was looking at for tomorrow shows sw 6 mph at Stanardsville increasing to 8 but more southerly, however the NAM model shows light & variable to east @ 3mph.

For Luray the GSF model shows south with a slight west component @ 5mph but the NAM show SE @ 3 mph increasing to SE with more of a south component @ 9mph.

I have not idea which model forecast is more accurate for the area. I up for Daniel's tomorrow but need an observer to fly with since I have not flown there yet. Matthew I flew with you earlier this summer at Edith and if you head for Daniel's tomorrow I would be happy to fly with you again.

Jim C. - P2

[jmcrocker]

Matthew, Sorry I believe I confused you with Matthew Ingram, who I flew with a Edith, but I understand you are also a PG observer and would appreciate you taking me under your wing if you fly tomorrow.

Jim C.

[Matthew]

Hi Jim,

Yes. I'm a PG Observer I'll check forecast Saturday AM and make a decision and then and let you know.

Matthew

[Matthew]

Ack!!!!

The Daniel's forecast for today 12/27 has gone to hell.

WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH...
BECOMING EAST THIS AFTERNOON.

Meteorgrams and ADDS both show winds switching all over the place through the day and L&V.

hH well, maybe go kayaking when it warms up later today.

Matthew

[Dan T]

The current forecast on the ground is showing L&V. This doesn't necessarily mean that Daniel's won't be flyable or even soarable. Some upslope heating could provide good launch cycles and the roofs of the houses out front and to the left have proven to be pretty reliable thermal triggers. (I especially like the green roof on the left.)

These light thermal days can be really fun, providing opportunities to explore parts of the valley we wouldn't attempt in a significant headwind. You'll never know unless you go.

Dan T

[jmcrocker]

The forecast models have a decent spread to them. The higher resolution models favor Edith Gap in the afternoon with a bit more strength near 4 pm at 2000 ft with much of the surface winds light and variable. For Daniels the models are all light winds ranging from SW to SE with mainly a south component. I suspect with the days heating Edith will get decent cycles to launch but Daniel's southern exposure would probably work better. Tough call to make the drive. With temps rising near 30 degrees from the morning low heating should be good but the high pressure will certainly limit the lift. I suspect buoyant sledders but with near 60 degree temps in December, I'm happy to make the drive and roll the dice on conditions.

Jim C.

[Matthew]

Dr. Jack's shows a stable air mass over Virginia today.

Gonna hike the Maryland Heights Trail up at Harper's Ferry.

http://www.hikingupward.com/OMH/MarylandHeights/

Leaving DC around 10:45am.

If anyone wants to join us on the hike, give me a call.

301- two seven 0 1862.

Matthew