Latest forecast data suggests a window of opportunity on Saturday that will
be associated with the late-day passage of a surface pressure trough ahead
of the fast-moving cold front approaching from the WNW.
Best guess: Light SW though ~2 PM veering to W and increasing to ~8 cycling
to 11 KTs by ~5 PM and diminishing to WNW by ~sunset. Top of lift: ~4500'
unless blow-off mid and upper level clouds from well-upstream rain showers
result in thermal shutdown.
Best guess for Sunday: much better soaring conditions expected. Extended
launch window likely with prevailing wind NW ~10-15 KTS becoming WNW late.
If enough dry air builds in behind the front, - - dew points in the M60s --
the early afternoon Q-base will rise from ~4500' to ~6'K late. Tolerable
cloud-suck under best Q.
Disclaimer:
Warranties neither expressed nor implied.
User assumes all risk.
Not intended for use by children.
Coffee is hot; don't spill it in your lap.
HR Weekend Soaring Outlook
Moderator: CHGPA BOD
HR Weekend Soaring Outlook
Once again, Keller nailed it. Waking up saturday morning to see an
overcast and wind blowing down our tails I thought cancelling the launch
directors was a safe bet. But a good dozen pilots flew, including a
tandem.
My humble regards, All Seeing One!
Brian Vant-Hull
301-646-1149
On Fri, 19 Aug 2005, TQ wrote:
>
>
> Latest forecast data suggests a window of opportunity on Saturday that will
> be associated with the late-day passage of a surface pressure trough ahead
> of the fast-moving cold front approaching from the WNW.
>
> Best guess: Light SW though ~2 PM veering to W and increasing to ~8 cycling
> to 11 KTs by ~5 PM and diminishing to WNW by ~sunset. Top of lift: ~4500'
> unless blow-off mid and upper level clouds from well-upstream rain showers
> result in thermal shutdown.
>
> Best guess for Sunday: much better soaring conditions expected. Extended
> launch window likely with prevailing wind NW ~10-15 KTS becoming WNW late.
> If enough dry air builds in behind the front, - - dew points in the M60s --
> the early afternoon Q-base will rise from ~4500' to ~6'K late. Tolerable
> cloud-suck under best Q.
>
> Disclaimer:
> Warranties neither expressed nor implied.
> User assumes all risk.
> Not intended for use by children.
> Coffee is hot; don't spill it in your lap.
>
>
>
overcast and wind blowing down our tails I thought cancelling the launch
directors was a safe bet. But a good dozen pilots flew, including a
tandem.
My humble regards, All Seeing One!
Brian Vant-Hull
301-646-1149
On Fri, 19 Aug 2005, TQ wrote:
>
>
> Latest forecast data suggests a window of opportunity on Saturday that will
> be associated with the late-day passage of a surface pressure trough ahead
> of the fast-moving cold front approaching from the WNW.
>
> Best guess: Light SW though ~2 PM veering to W and increasing to ~8 cycling
> to 11 KTs by ~5 PM and diminishing to WNW by ~sunset. Top of lift: ~4500'
> unless blow-off mid and upper level clouds from well-upstream rain showers
> result in thermal shutdown.
>
> Best guess for Sunday: much better soaring conditions expected. Extended
> launch window likely with prevailing wind NW ~10-15 KTS becoming WNW late.
> If enough dry air builds in behind the front, - - dew points in the M60s --
> the early afternoon Q-base will rise from ~4500' to ~6'K late. Tolerable
> cloud-suck under best Q.
>
> Disclaimer:
> Warranties neither expressed nor implied.
> User assumes all risk.
> Not intended for use by children.
> Coffee is hot; don't spill it in your lap.
>
>
>
HR Forecasts
Nailed it my ass! It turned S around 4:00 on Saturday, not WNW. Plus, Jim's, Johnny Come Late, forecast was issued on Friday night at 10:30. How hard is that? What about my forecasts all week even when people were thinking of bailing or postponing the festival. Here are my predictions from last Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.
******
From Tuesday...
Here's the latest bay forecast... NW winds be comin'.
Matthew
ANZ535-170830-
/X.NEW.KLWX.SV.A.0724.050816T2028Z-050817T0200Z/
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD-
428 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2005
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 724 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
TONIGHT
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. WAVES NEAR FLAT. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSTMS.
WED
NE WINDS AROUND 5 KT. WAVES FLAT.
WED NIGHT
NE WINDS AROUND 5 KT. WAVES FLAT.
THU
E WINDS AROUND 5 KT. WAVES FLAT.
THU NIGHT
E WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. WAVES 1 FT OR LESS.
FRI
NE WINDS 5 KT. WAVES FLAT.
FRI NIGHT
NW WINDS 5 KT. WAVES FLAT.
SAT
W WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. WAVES 1 FT OR LESS.
SUN
NW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. WAVES 1 FT OR LESS. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND TSTMS.
******
From Wednesday...
Posted: Wed Aug 17, 2005 12:29 pm Post subject: Weekend Forecast
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Saturday is predicted to be sunny and there's a chance of thunderstorms on Sunday. It's Summer, there's a 30-40 percent chance of thunderstorms almost every day. This means absolutely nothing. Plus, there's a good chance we'll have West winds on Saturday and NW winds on Sunday.
We'll be able to fly both days and have good weather for the party on Saturday night. What more do people want?????
Matthew
********
From Thursday...
Posted: Thu Aug 18, 2005 12:24 pm Post subject: HR Saturday
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Oh yea of little faith. You know it's only Thursday. Saturday afternoon looks light WSW or light and variable to me with good conditions for thermals-- quite High Rockable.
Matthew
******
Where are my Kudos??? Where????
:)
Matthew
******
From Tuesday...
Here's the latest bay forecast... NW winds be comin'.
Matthew
ANZ535-170830-
/X.NEW.KLWX.SV.A.0724.050816T2028Z-050817T0200Z/
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD-
428 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2005
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 724 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
TONIGHT
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. WAVES NEAR FLAT. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSTMS.
WED
NE WINDS AROUND 5 KT. WAVES FLAT.
WED NIGHT
NE WINDS AROUND 5 KT. WAVES FLAT.
THU
E WINDS AROUND 5 KT. WAVES FLAT.
THU NIGHT
E WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. WAVES 1 FT OR LESS.
FRI
NE WINDS 5 KT. WAVES FLAT.
FRI NIGHT
NW WINDS 5 KT. WAVES FLAT.
SAT
W WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. WAVES 1 FT OR LESS.
SUN
NW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. WAVES 1 FT OR LESS. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND TSTMS.
******
From Wednesday...
Posted: Wed Aug 17, 2005 12:29 pm Post subject: Weekend Forecast
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Saturday is predicted to be sunny and there's a chance of thunderstorms on Sunday. It's Summer, there's a 30-40 percent chance of thunderstorms almost every day. This means absolutely nothing. Plus, there's a good chance we'll have West winds on Saturday and NW winds on Sunday.
We'll be able to fly both days and have good weather for the party on Saturday night. What more do people want?????
Matthew
********
From Thursday...
Posted: Thu Aug 18, 2005 12:24 pm Post subject: HR Saturday
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Oh yea of little faith. You know it's only Thursday. Saturday afternoon looks light WSW or light and variable to me with good conditions for thermals-- quite High Rockable.
Matthew
******
Where are my Kudos??? Where????
:)
Matthew
HR Weekend Soaring Outlook
I thought I saw people landing a bit later than that, but I had my head
buried in the kitchen.
Brian Vant-Hull
301-646-1149
On Mon, 22 Aug 2005, Matthew wrote:
>
> Nailed it my ass! It turned S around 4:00 on Saturday, not WNW. Plus, Jim's, Johnny Come Late, forecast was issued on Friday night at 10:30. How hard is that? What about my forecasts all week even when people were thinking of bailing or postponing the festival. Here are my predictions from last Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.
>
> ******
>
> >From Tuesday...
>
> Here's the latest bay forecast... NW winds be comin'.
>
> Matthew
>
> ANZ535-170830-
> /X.NEW.KLWX.SV.A.0724.050816T2028Z-050817T0200Z/
> TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD-
> 428 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2005
>
> ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 724 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
> EVENING...
>
> TONIGHT
> LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. WAVES NEAR FLAT. A CHANCE OF
> SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSTMS.
>
> WED
> NE WINDS AROUND 5 KT. WAVES FLAT.
>
> WED NIGHT
> NE WINDS AROUND 5 KT. WAVES FLAT.
>
> THU
> E WINDS AROUND 5 KT. WAVES FLAT.
>
> THU NIGHT
> E WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. WAVES 1 FT OR LESS.
>
> FRI
> NE WINDS 5 KT. WAVES FLAT.
>
> FRI NIGHT
> NW WINDS 5 KT. WAVES FLAT.
>
> SAT
> W WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. WAVES 1 FT OR LESS.
>
> SUN
> NW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. WAVES 1 FT OR LESS. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
> AND TSTMS.
>
>
> ******
> >From Wednesday...
> Posted: Wed Aug 17, 2005 12:29 pm Post subject: Weekend Forecast
>
> --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
>
> Saturday is predicted to be sunny and there's a chance of thunderstorms on Sunday. It's Summer, there's a 30-40 percent chance of thunderstorms almost every day. This means absolutely nothing. Plus, there's a good chance we'll have West winds on Saturday and NW winds on Sunday.
>
> We'll be able to fly both days and have good weather for the party on Saturday night. What more do people want?????
>
> Matthew
>
>
> ********
> >From Thursday...
> Posted: Thu Aug 18, 2005 12:24 pm Post subject: HR Saturday
>
> --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
>
> Oh yea of little faith. You know it's only Thursday. Saturday afternoon looks light WSW or light and variable to me with good conditions for thermals-- quite High Rockable.
>
> Matthew
>
> ******
>
> Where are my Kudos??? Where????
>
>
>
> Matthew
>
buried in the kitchen.
Brian Vant-Hull
301-646-1149
On Mon, 22 Aug 2005, Matthew wrote:
>
> Nailed it my ass! It turned S around 4:00 on Saturday, not WNW. Plus, Jim's, Johnny Come Late, forecast was issued on Friday night at 10:30. How hard is that? What about my forecasts all week even when people were thinking of bailing or postponing the festival. Here are my predictions from last Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.
>
> ******
>
> >From Tuesday...
>
> Here's the latest bay forecast... NW winds be comin'.
>
> Matthew
>
> ANZ535-170830-
> /X.NEW.KLWX.SV.A.0724.050816T2028Z-050817T0200Z/
> TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD-
> 428 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2005
>
> ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 724 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
> EVENING...
>
> TONIGHT
> LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. WAVES NEAR FLAT. A CHANCE OF
> SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSTMS.
>
> WED
> NE WINDS AROUND 5 KT. WAVES FLAT.
>
> WED NIGHT
> NE WINDS AROUND 5 KT. WAVES FLAT.
>
> THU
> E WINDS AROUND 5 KT. WAVES FLAT.
>
> THU NIGHT
> E WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. WAVES 1 FT OR LESS.
>
> FRI
> NE WINDS 5 KT. WAVES FLAT.
>
> FRI NIGHT
> NW WINDS 5 KT. WAVES FLAT.
>
> SAT
> W WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. WAVES 1 FT OR LESS.
>
> SUN
> NW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. WAVES 1 FT OR LESS. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
> AND TSTMS.
>
>
> ******
> >From Wednesday...
> Posted: Wed Aug 17, 2005 12:29 pm Post subject: Weekend Forecast
>
> --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
>
> Saturday is predicted to be sunny and there's a chance of thunderstorms on Sunday. It's Summer, there's a 30-40 percent chance of thunderstorms almost every day. This means absolutely nothing. Plus, there's a good chance we'll have West winds on Saturday and NW winds on Sunday.
>
> We'll be able to fly both days and have good weather for the party on Saturday night. What more do people want?????
>
> Matthew
>
>
> ********
> >From Thursday...
> Posted: Thu Aug 18, 2005 12:24 pm Post subject: HR Saturday
>
> --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
>
> Oh yea of little faith. You know it's only Thursday. Saturday afternoon looks light WSW or light and variable to me with good conditions for thermals-- quite High Rockable.
>
> Matthew
>
> ******
>
> Where are my Kudos??? Where????
>
>
>
> Matthew
>
Re: HR Forecasts
Thanks Matthew!
I certainly appreciated all of your messages and optimistic interpretation. I generally don't pay any attention to forecasts that are more than 48 hours in advance.
I really like Jim's style of providing a synopsis, a narrative. and a bit of humor (e.g. the disclaimers).
I certainly appreciated all of your messages and optimistic interpretation. I generally don't pay any attention to forecasts that are more than 48 hours in advance.
I really like Jim's style of providing a synopsis, a narrative. and a bit of humor (e.g. the disclaimers).
Matthew wrote:
Where are my Kudos??? Where????
Matthew
'Spark
HR Weekend Soaring Outlook
I second that - Matthew's ability to pick out the most upbeat outlook
is really valuable, especially for organizers sweating over the numbers.
Thanks for seeing the bright side! (and being right to boot)
Brian Vant-Hull
301-646-1149
On Mon, 22 Aug 2005, Spark wrote:
>
> Thanks Matthew!
>
> I certainly appreciated all of your messages and optimistic interpretation. I generally don't pay any attention to forecasts that are more than 48 hours in advance.
>
> I really like Jim's style of providing a synopsis, a narrative. and a bit of humor (e.g. the disclaimers).
>
>
> Matthew wrote:
>
>
> Where are my Kudos??? Where????
>
>
>
> Matthew
> (end of quote)
> 'Spark
> 301-462-8320
> http://community.webshots.com/user/sparkozoid
>
is really valuable, especially for organizers sweating over the numbers.
Thanks for seeing the bright side! (and being right to boot)
Brian Vant-Hull
301-646-1149
On Mon, 22 Aug 2005, Spark wrote:
>
> Thanks Matthew!
>
> I certainly appreciated all of your messages and optimistic interpretation. I generally don't pay any attention to forecasts that are more than 48 hours in advance.
>
> I really like Jim's style of providing a synopsis, a narrative. and a bit of humor (e.g. the disclaimers).
>
>
> Matthew wrote:
>
>
> Where are my Kudos??? Where????
>
>
>
> Matthew
> (end of quote)
> 'Spark
> 301-462-8320
> http://community.webshots.com/user/sparkozoid
>