Weekend Forecast

Post by **Matthew** » Tue Aug 16, 2005 4:43 pm

Here's the latest bay forecast... NW winds be comin'.

Matthew

ANZ535-170830-
/X.NEW.KLWX.SV.A.0724.050816T2028Z-050817T0200Z/
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD-
428 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2005

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 724 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

TONIGHT
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. WAVES NEAR FLAT. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSTMS.

WED
NE WINDS AROUND 5 KT. WAVES FLAT.

WED NIGHT
NE WINDS AROUND 5 KT. WAVES FLAT.

THU
E WINDS AROUND 5 KT. WAVES FLAT.

THU NIGHT
E WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. WAVES 1 FT OR LESS.

FRI
NE WINDS 5 KT. WAVES FLAT.

FRI NIGHT
NW WINDS 5 KT. WAVES FLAT.

SAT
W WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. WAVES 1 FT OR LESS.

SUN
NW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. WAVES 1 FT OR LESS. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND TSTMS.

Post by **brianvh** » Wed Aug 17, 2005 10:09 am

I hope the nw forecast at the rock for sunday creeps into saturday. I'm
a little concerned about the increase in the rain forecast since
yesterday. So far the forecast for thunderstorms is less than 40% each
day, so I'm still hopeful. We've had rain several times before and still
had excellent flying.

Just in case the 'cast turns bad, how many folks would be screwed up by a
move to next weekend? I can almost guaruntee it won't happen ('specially
with all the food we've ordered and all the people coming who we don't
have direct communication with) but how people have hotel/motel reservations?
Just curious.

Brian Vant-Hull
301-646-1149

On Tue, 16 Aug 2005, Matthew wrote:

>
> Here's the latest bay forecast... NW winds be comin'.
>
> Matthew
>
>
>
> ANZ535-170830-
> /X.NEW.KLWX.SV.A.0724.050816T2028Z-050817T0200Z/
> TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD-
> 428 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2005
>
> ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 724 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
> EVENING...
>
> TONIGHT
> LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. WAVES NEAR FLAT. A CHANCE OF
> SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSTMS.
>
> WED
> NE WINDS AROUND 5 KT. WAVES FLAT.
>
> WED NIGHT
> NE WINDS AROUND 5 KT. WAVES FLAT.
>
> THU
> E WINDS AROUND 5 KT. WAVES FLAT.
>
> THU NIGHT
> E WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. WAVES 1 FT OR LESS.
>
> FRI
> NE WINDS 5 KT. WAVES FLAT.
>
> FRI NIGHT
> NW WINDS 5 KT. WAVES FLAT.
>
> SAT
> W WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. WAVES 1 FT OR LESS.
>
> SUN
> NW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. WAVES 1 FT OR LESS. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
> AND TSTMS.
>

Scott · Post by **Scott** » Wed Aug 17, 2005 10:53 am

I hope it goes off well this weekend...but I'd be happy if it were moved to the following weekend, because then I could make it!

Scott

Scott · Post by **Scott** » Wed Aug 17, 2005 11:02 am

From the latest NOAA forecast discussion...

MOS probability of precipitation on Friday are quite high...especially the NAM MOS which is indicating 70% probability of precipitation or higher at many locations. For now we will increase probability of precipitation to 40 across the area...

So it'll probably rain Friday.

For Friday night through Saturday night...will continue with only 20% probability of precipitation which will not come through in the worded forecast...only in the grids. During this period Bermuda high pressure and a strong middle level ridge across the region will be the main players.

So Saturday will be hotter and dryer.

High chance probability of precipitation still look on target for Sunday as previous forecast already indicates...with precipitation coming to an end from west to east Sunday night.

So it'll rain again on Sunday.

Scott

Post by **brianvh** » Wed Aug 17, 2005 11:17 am

I'm hoping that if the wsw forecast holds for saturday folks can attempt
to fly from the Pulpit to HR. Will have to be done early before the
overcast. but that's days away, for the HR party the forecast nearly
always improves!

And thunderstorms on sunday means brief downpours, not widescale
stratiform rain. Even 100% pop is okay if it's a thunderstorm and is over
quickly (and we don't fly during the buildup!).

Brian Vant-Hull
301-646-1149

On Wed, 17 Aug 2005, Scott wrote:

> >From the latest NOAA forecast discussion...
>
> Quote:
> For Friday night through Saturday night...will continue with only 20% probability of precipitation which will not come through in the worded forecast...only in the grids. During this period Bermuda high pressure and a strong middle level ridge across the region will be the main players.
> (end of quote)
>
>
> So Saturday will be hotter and dryer.

>

Spark · Post by **Spark** » Wed Aug 17, 2005 12:03 pm

If flying will be squashed by the weather, I wouldn't mind if we postponed the fly-in a week, but I suspect that anyone travelling here for the event would disagree.

I just returned from a week in Denver and Portland, checking out universities with my daughter. Saw some nice areas on the Oregon coast and encountered enormous banana slugs .

I finally finished the High Rock flights per year report last night and the list of pilots (almost 400) who have signed the logbooks. As with any record-gathering attempt, it will be incomplete and somewhat innaccurate, but somewhat interesting and useful (I hope). I'll be bringing that info to the fly in along with the logbooks and other memorabilia.

I am taking the day off and hoping to finish up the DVD project tomorrow. Wayne Bergman from Michigan has provided some very nice vintage footage of late 70's model gliders (e.g. Fledge, etc) launching from HR in high winds using a nose-wire-man. Also, many great old photos provided by Rae/Fred and others.

Post by **Matthew** » Wed Aug 17, 2005 12:29 pm

Saturday is predicted to be sunny and there's a chance of thunderstorms on Sunday. It's Summer, there's a 30-40 percent chance of thunderstorms almost every day. This means absolutely nothing. Plus, there's a good chance we'll have West winds on Saturday and NW winds on Sunday.

We'll be able to fly both days and have good weather for the party on Saturday night. What more do people want?????

Matthew

Richard Hays · Post by **Richard Hays** » Wed Aug 17, 2005 12:39 pm

In response to Matthews' request for "what else do we want" I'd like to
request strippers. LOL.

Rich

>From: "Matthew" <adventuretales@yahoo.com>
>Reply-To: hg_forum@chgpa.org
>To: hg_forum@chgpa.org
>Subject: Weekend Forecast
>Date: Wed, 17 Aug 2005 12:29:48 -0400
>
>Saturday is predicted to be sunny and there's a chance of thunderstorms on
>Sunday. It's Summer, there's a 30-40 percent chance of thunderstorms almost
>every day. This means absolutely nothing. Plus, there's a good chance
>we'll have West winds on Saturday and NW winds on Sunday.
>
>We'll be able to fly both days and have good weather for the party on
>Saturday night. What more do people want?????
>
>Matthew

Post by **Matthew** » Wed Aug 17, 2005 12:54 pm

Richard,

Brian VH and Sparky mentioned something about puting on a "Special Show". Are you sure you that's what you want? :)

Matthew

Post by **SheilaGardner** » Wed Aug 17, 2005 1:08 pm

we have b&b plans for saturday night. couldn't make it the following
weekend

sheila

On Aug 17, 2005, at 11:17 AM, Vant-Hull - Brian wrote:

>
>
> I'm hoping that if the wsw forecast holds for saturday folks can
> attempt
> to fly from the Pulpit to HR. Will have to be done early before the
> overcast. but that's days away, for the HR party the forecast nearly
> always improves!
>
> And thunderstorms on sunday means brief downpours, not widescale
> stratiform rain. Even 100% pop is okay if it's a thunderstorm and
> is over
> quickly (and we don't fly during the buildup!).
>
> Brian Vant-Hull
> 301-646-1149
>
> On Wed, 17 Aug 2005, Scott wrote:
>
>
>
>>> From the latest NOAA forecast discussion...
>>>
>>
>> Quote:
>> For Friday night through Saturday night...will continue with only
>> 20% probability of precipitation which will not come through in
>> the worded forecast...only in the grids. During this period
>> Bermuda high pressure and a strong middle level ridge across the
>> region will be the main players.
>> (end of quote)
>>
>>
>> So Saturday will be hotter and dryer.

>>
>>
>
>
>
>

Richard Hays · Post by **Richard Hays** » Wed Aug 17, 2005 1:08 pm

On second thought..........( bad visual )........lets' just pray for flyable
conditions. LOL.

>From: "Matthew" <adventuretales@yahoo.com>
>Reply-To: hg_forum@chgpa.org
>To: hg_forum@chgpa.org
>Subject: Weekend Forecast
>Date: Wed, 17 Aug 2005 12:54:11 -0400
>
>Richard,
>
>Brian VH and Sparky mentioned something about puting on a "Special Show".
>Are you sure you that's what you want?

>
>Matthew

Post by **SheilaGardner** » Wed Aug 17, 2005 1:09 pm

Brian - I'm guessing not but any chance there'll be that huge blow-
up, jumpy thingy? Sheila

On Aug 17, 2005, at 12:54 PM, Matthew wrote:

>
> Richard,
>
> Brian VH and Sparky mentioned something about puting on a "Special
> Show". Are you sure you that's what you want?

>
> Matthew
>
>

Post by **brianvh** » Wed Aug 17, 2005 1:27 pm

No moonbounce. That thing was expensive. Though if we were gonna do it
once we should have saved for the 30th. Oh well.

but if weather cooperates there'll be lots of colorful things in the sky
for kids to watch. I'm hopeful...like I said, the chances of postponing
on account of weather are miniscule, I was just curious if as many people
make reservations as for the Pulpit fly-in (though where they'd make'em is
anybody's guess).

It's gonna be a flippin' boowah weekend.

Brian Vant-Hull
301-646-1149

On Wed, 17 Aug 2005, Sheila Gardner wrote:

>
> Brian - I'm guessing not but any chance there'll be that huge blow-
> up, jumpy thingy? Sheila
>
> On Aug 17, 2005, at 12:54 PM, Matthew wrote:
>
> >
> > Richard,
> >
> > Brian VH and Sparky mentioned something about puting on a "Special
> > Show". Are you sure you that's what you want?

> >
> > Matthew
> >
> >
>
>
>