Woodstock, Monday Aug 22

[Ward Odenwald]

Could be good. Any interest? Ward

[markc]

Count me as a possible/maybe.... The work crunch finished on Thursday, so I may be able to take a day
off if things are looking really good on Monday. Will check the 'casts on Sat & Sun.

MarkC

[Ward Odenwald]

The Pulpit forecast for Monday is now borderline blown-out. However, Woodstock is looking very good (wind velocity, direction and thermal crystal-ball indications). Ward

[rasmussenv]

I am watching this thread - with interest in Woodstock. I would need to head home by 5pm, but this looks promising for an early afternoon flight.

[deveil]

so, is woodstock happening tommorrow?

[markc]

I'm still leaning toward a day off for flying, possibly Wstock if things don't change radically overnight. Guess we'll see!

MarkC

[Ward Odenwald]

Also planing on going. If forecasts don't significantly change by 6 AM, my plan is to arrive at 10. Ward

[Ward Odenwald]

Conditions still look good for local soaring at Woodstock but not for flying down to Harrisonburg. NoStepper is now indicating a more northerly flow with reduced velocity so I'm going to save my leave day for another day. I hope it works out for everyone else that goes. Ward

[rasmussenv]

Well, I wish I could sit beside some expert looking at the weather readings to learn things I'm missing. I love the 'flag' chart on nostepper, but it hasn't been updated in more than 2 days. The interactive map, and hourly weather.com and underground all looks like pretty promising direction and velocity to me ... but then I wouldn't be taking a day of leave, so easier to make the gamble. I'd go if I wouldn't be launching alone - it looks pretty nice to me - and will monitor to see. Reply or PM me or call (seven oh 3 then fiver seven 6 twenty-nine sixty).

[deveil]

looks like i'll not be taking the trip either.

[markc]

I'm still pretty up about the day.... Yes, some NNW flow, but then, I think WStock is actually a hair or two
north of NW. So I'm going to continue my morning with an expectation of a flying day, but will check the
weather again before heading out (9:30 or so). Valerie, I'll give you a call.

MarkC

[rasmussenv]

I talked to Mark - we're heading out!!! Come and join us!

Leaving within an hour or so, but between checking out the bull situation, and the bridge LZ and setting shuttle, we won't be in the air before 1pm I'm sure.

[markc]

Call me at 301-807-5414 if you want a conditions report, or for coordinating a shuttle.

[RichH]

Most of the wind forecasts I've been looking at show a NNW flow in the region of woodstock..That doesn't mean it isn't soarable but Ward.. I believe, was looking for a better possibility to run the ridge and with this type of forecast it would make doing so a bit dicey..and again!! any sizable cross at woodstock from the SW or the NNW in higher winds can be a very turbulent situation. Hope everyone gets some good flying in..Good Luck!!

[lbunner]

On the other hand, heading SSW along the ridge in a NNW wind will get you there fairly quickly.

[RichH]

Yes it will..I like flying it in a NNW it get you to the end of the ridge quickly ..Ive done it in about an hour in a NNW..Still want to get there before thermals form then go over the back..Today actually looked pretty good from here...nice streets were forming here in Richmond...unfortunately had to work today..Rich

[Ward Odenwald]

Once the Sunday forecasts suggested that a self-launch at the Pulpit was not possible with +15 mph winds, I decided that an early launch at Woodstock was my only option (lower wind velocity) with a goal of Harrisonburg and beyond on Monday. Sunday night forecasts indicated that getting into the air by 11 at Woodstock was possible - with reasonably safe self-launch conditions at the slot. Unfortunately, today’s (Monday’s) 6 AM forecast indicated a more NNW flow instead of the earlier NW direction. As RichH indicated, that direction is ideal for soaring north of the Edinburg gap but beyond South Mt., the ridge arches south toward Harrisonburg and the tree-line extends. . . . Basically, once you have crossed the Edinburg gap you have passed the “Rubicon” and ridge-lift is your only insurance from getting close to the trees! After some pacing and two stiff instant coffees, I realized that relying on significant ridge-lift south of New Market was iffy so my goal of flying to Harrisonburg was questionable considering my average thermalling skills. Add in an annual leave day - I bailed! Having said this, MarkC most likely made it down to Harrisonburg and back! TWICE. Ward

[Ward Odenwald]

Valerie, just digested your post earlier today which you stated; " I love the 'flag' chart on nostepper, but it hasn't been updated in more than 2 days." Not so! For the last 4 days, nostepper has be updating/adjusting their winds aloft forecast every 6 hrs. Its been my experience that the winds aloft direction and velocity are informative and when in agreement with other forecast models such as XC skies, the data is very predictive. So when the forecast data is changing every 6 hrs, why do you believe that its not been updated in more than 48 hrs? Puzzled. Ward

[rasmussenv]

First - I gotta say - what a SPECTACULAR day! (for my, not XC, goals). I'll post separately about why I don't think it has been updated.

I got up to launch about 10:30, unloaded my gear, saw beautiful NW winds (not NNW) coming in at a fairly steady 10 - spiking up to 15 now and then. Mark called that he was just getting off onto 11, and we agreed to meet in the primary to drop a vehicle. He was there and had talked to the owners who assured him that the "bull was around somewhere, but was friendly". We saw no livestock in the LZ, but checked out the adjacent field, on the other side of the road and walked it. It looked very good for the NW winds, if we needed to avoid a bull. The bride LZ is OUT OUT OUT - full of 5' high corn.

Got back up to launch, finished setting up, conditions still looked very nice. Why was the day spectacular?

1) I wanted to try a self-launch and conditions were great for it. Mark walked with me down to position - as he said, 'why not have help when it is there?', but once I lifted the glider my hands were the only ones on it until I called clear and launched in to a very nice cycle and lifted, lifted, lifted!! Winds were fairly steady at 10, occasionally spiking as high as 15, and generally smoothly in at NW. So I got a very comfortable, happy launch at about 1:30pm.

2) I hovered over launch wanting to 'observe' Mark's launch. He didn't take off for another 40 minutes, and during that time I climbed as high as I have ever been over 5400 ASL, well over 3000 over launch. By the time he took off I was lower, but spent most of my flight at or over 3000ASL - well over 1000 above launch. And it was easy peasy. Very seldom did I hear a sink sound - mostly silent slow descent or lift.

3) Mark launched a little after 2. He quickly got much higher altitude than I and spent most of his flight much higher and all over the ridge and valley. At about 90minutes I decided I'd go for a two hour flight - that I would land after two hours even if there was good lift. And there was. I could easily have stayed up "forever".

4) No livestock ever showed up in the PLZ. I had a 'perfect' landing - maybe a step - and the breeze carried the glider off my shoulders as I walked to break down by the fence.

5) I was mostly broken down when Mark landed - so he had close to two hours by that time, and he came down knowing I needed to get off the LZ by 4:30, to leave by 5pm from the top. He broke down and we headed back to the top by about 4:45. Close enough - I made it to my Tai Chi class in time. Back at top, just before leaving saw Ellie and two other PGs getting ready to fly - I don't know how they did.

So - This was my first 'self-launch', my highest ASL ever, my longest local-mountain flight, and longest flight of 2011. Oh! And the temps were mid-70s (except when I was at 5400 - then a bit cool), like a warm/cool caress most of the flight.

Just a spectacular day altogether.

[rasmussenv]

Okay - boring part - don't read unless you are interested in helping me understand nostepper. I started watching conditions two days ago. At that time the 'NAM 40km METEOGRAM' (the 'flag chart' that I love) showed "Data initial time: 20 Aug 2011 06z Calculation started at: 20 Aug 2011 06z calculation ended at: 23 Aug 2011 18Z" I have a print-screen I can send you. The same image appeared for the next two days - with Saturday as the first day of data, running through Tues. The print-screen I created was this morning's version - and it was unchanged from the previous many times I'd checked it (and reloaded the page and entered the 'secret code' each time to trigger an update). It shows Sat data, then Sun data then (today's) Mon data - and showed the same image for the past two days. I think since the data initial time of 20 Aug when it was calculated.

If you know that it is updated every six hours ... well, wouldn't the calculation start time be later??? I can send you the print screen if you like. I just have not seen any changes for the past couple days.

But, like I said, I'd love to sit down beside someone as I look at this - maybe we could Thurs night at the gathering?!?! because I'm feeling my way through this. I'd noticed this phenomena before - I don't have the impression that chart is updated more than every several days.

Valerie

[Ward Odenwald]

I'm happy that you and Mark had safe flights! Ward

[XCanytime]

With all the severe T-storms that moved thru the area and the tornado watch/warning that was issued Sunday afternoon there was no doubt in my mind that today was going to be awesome. I have observed countless awesome soaring days in the past 13 years following severe T-storm/tornado weather the day before. A simple data point that proves 100% reliable year after year. Bacil

[jyoder111]

Sounds like a great day! Congrats on the personal records.

Jesse

[sailin]

Way to go Valerie!!! Nice work. Wish I was there with you guys. We got home from oput of town about 2am Monday morning and the only thing that kept me from joining you guys was the fact that I didn't wake up unitl 130pm that afternoon!!!

Nice flying!!!

Jon

[markc]

[One possibility is that your browser cached the 'flag chart' at nostepper, and on subsequent visits, it didn't realize that the data had been superseded. Just a suggestion, hard to know for sure, but that might explain things. Clearing the browser cache periodically, or using "Shift+Reload" could be of help.]

Un-believeable lift on Monday. I was flying the 60-second result reported by my vario's average-er, working it from 500fpm to 750fpm. Literally. Climbed from about 3000 MSL to 7300 MSL in one thermal, just got better and better. Bailed about 300' below base and headed out into the valley. The street worked out to Route 11, but the sky was dry upwind of that point. Strong conditions aloft, winds roaring for the entire flight. Tried to get past 11 on a couple of occasions without success.... Might have pushed harder if Valerie didn't have to hit the road, or if conditions had been nicer in the valley. But after a couple of hours, it was clear that there would be no soft thermals, and I decided to put it down rather than hanging out solely for more airtime.

[WHAT??? What have you done with the real MarkC?????]

Back up top between 5:30 and 7:30, conditions in the slot were cranking. Like, full-wirecrew cranking, much of the time. There was one brief lull in which Lazslo managed to launch his PG, and he seemed to be doing "ok" : slow progress away from the mtn, not much parking. I saw that he had landed after I headed down the mountain, but I suspect that the other PGers ( Ben & Ellie, and Ben) decided not to fly. Hopefully I'm wrong and they got to enjoy some amazing sunset flights!

MarkC