Woodstock Friday 10/29

[uplandann]

What's you ETA Hugh?

I do have some experience with the site: I went with Hank Hengst to launch as well as walking the LZ, even got to watch a pilot land; crewed for three pilots a few weeks ago and watched their launches. I am willing to do it again if you deem it wise. I will take all the sage instillations I can get! It has been a few years since I have done a high flight.

Ann

[Matthew]

God I hate NOAA!

They've upped the forecast again--

FRIDAY
SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S...EXCEPT IN THE LOWER 50S AT
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
30 MPH.

At least by leaving late we will be able to check the 11am forecast update on Friday.

Still got my fingers crossed-- for good winds....

Matthew

[Ward Odenwald]

S***, bad-thing are ramping up. I'm packing for an early arrival but now will wait for early morning forecast.

[mcelrah]

Ann,

Well, judging by Matthew's post about the re-upped forecast, I may choose to make haste slowly. My experience is that it always takes longer than I expect to do all the tasks I enumerated (even if you don't need the LZ walk and other familiarization). Plus I have a ~2 hour drive from Maryland.

It will take me at least 5 minutes to tell you everything I know about hang-gliding at Woodstock - OK, maybe 2 minutes.

So, the plan that is gelling in my mind is to start loading the car first thing in the morning, roll by about 1000, arrive around noon, set up by 2 PM - and maybe fly sooner than the H2/Falcons, land and come up to observe.

"I said 'maybe' and that's final!"
"Indecision is the key to flexibility!"

- Hugh

[Roger]

I plan to make it in the afternoon, after a visit to Luray Caverns in the AM. If anyone wants a ride up top from the LZ, please give me a call, I can take probably another 5 gliders if we need to. (see my signature line for phone #).
Look forward to see you all there!

Bacil, how 'bout an updated Bacil-cast purdy please? Thanks (4 hour drive)

[Ward Odenwald]

XC skies and NOAA are now suggesting that Sunday and not tomorrow may be the better of the two.

[mcelrah]

I will participate *somewhere* on Sunday - but, dang it, I've already decided not to go to work tomorrow... - Hugh

[rasmussenv]

My car is loaded and I'm set to be there - but I don't leave until 1pm. I'd prefer tomorrow over Sunday and am hopeful that by mid-morning I can see confirmation that tomorrow has strong possibilities for an H2 / Falcon. But I will defer - if it looks bad, I'd rather shoot for Sunday (since Hugh indicates he'll be flying then too), since I can only do one of the two.

Valerie

[jyoder111]

Bacil and I are planning on getting to Woodstock before 9:00am. Give us a call if you're curious.

Jesse

[sailin]

I'm planning on arriving around noon. Keeping fingers.......and toes....crossed for Falconable weather
Looking forward to seeing you all,

Jon
seven 0 three- four 0 five- seven 5 0 five

[markc]

Shoot, I have to bail on any flying plans for tomorrow and the weekend.

FWIW, I think that the current forecasts are worth a shot, especially later
in the day.

But just keep in mind that forecasts are only.... Forecasts.

Sure, the 'Woodstock Effect' is real, but that doesn't mean that you will be able
to benefit from it every time you go out. It depends on what actually happens.

If you can get away, then great, head on out and hope that it will be a day-off
well spent! But you should also be willing to pass on the day, to fly another,
even if you end up burning a vacation day while hang/para-waiting at launch.

And you know the expression: "Looks great! You first!"

Hope to be reading some great flight reports tomorrow night!

MarkC

[Matthew]

Sound plan-- let's completely disregard all forecasts and go out and see what happens.

50 percent chance of thunderstorms, SW winds gusting to 30. Hey let's go to the Pulpit-- what could possibly go wrong???

Tornados-- hurricanes-- p-shaw! No need to evacuate or take shelter-- they're just forecasts.

Matthew

[mcelrah]

Well, I would note that some of the best sailing I have had was on the day or two before a hurricane was s'posed to hit - everybody was doubling up lines and battening down hatches and we had the Bay to ourselves in beautiful, balmy weather. *Then* we doubled the lines and battened the hatches...

Look, with this forecast, it's a crapshoot. But the considered judgment of more than one prognosticator whom I respect is that it's worth going out to see. That means that more often than not, when people have gone to Woodstock with a forecast like this, they have gotten to fly in conditions that were reasonably safe. The "reasonably" is because conditions can ramp up even after they have apparently died down. So all of us, but especially the Falcon drivers, need to keep checking that we can still penetrate, stay on the front of the ridge, maintain good altitude above the terrain but resist the urge to sky out. And we won't launch Falcons/H2s if we don't get favorable pilot reports from those who have actually flown in the conditions.

See yo tomorrow!- Hugh

[tdilisio]

Survey says?

Who's in?

[Roger]

Im on the way. Guessing between 1-2 arrival. Could someone post the frequency in use today? I plan on swinging by the lz, I will update my eta after luray caverns.

[Joe Schad]

Forcast on ADDS is still calling for 20-25kts at 3000 until after dark as well as higher at 6,000 msl. I think the best chance to fly is late if at all. I plan to arrive around 2pm. My guess is that it will be turbulent as it always seems to be on the day of the frontal passage and cold. Not sure it will pass the Geezer flying criteria (warm, fun, and easy).

Joe

[uplandann]

Okay, looks like Bacil, Jesse early AM, Hugh, Jon, Roger, Joe, Chuck (think that's everybody so far) and whoever comes out of the woodwork in the afternoon... I like those criteria Joe. I'm starting to like the look of Sunday as well, although, Im not sure I could make it. I'll come take a look this afternoon.

Ann

[chuckok]

I'm working toward LZ arrival 1:30ish

[Matthew]

Looks like we are out-- too strong for my taste--gusts to 30 and a 20 mph hour gust differential--- hmmm, wonder what the USHPA guidelines are on that for H2s and H3s????

Love how the new pilots are being encouraged to go fly on a day when the gust differential is so beyond the recommended limits for EVERYONE!

Plus, Karen has to be a working slave today.

My gut feeling is that it will back off after 4:00-- AVN shows peak gusts dissipating then.

Have fun behind the ridge!

Matthew
PS Looking like Daniel's tomorrow and Pulpit on Sunday.

[markc]

Sound plan-- let's completely disregard all forecasts and go out and see what happens.

Wow.

I think you missed my point Matthew.

The spirit of my post was this: If you look at a forecast and you do decide to give it a try on
a strong day, then be prepared NOT TO FLY. Because that forecast is.... Just a forecast.
And the 'Woodstock Effect' is not a guaranteed phenomenon.

Actual conditions might be stronger than forecast, to a point that the 'Woodstock Effect' is
overwhelmed. Or they might be about as forecast, such that the 'Woodstock Effect' can play
a role and make the day flyable. Or they might be lighter than forecast, leading to a great day
with no concerns about the winds at all.

I've flown at Woodstock on strong days with forecasts of gust-30 five times over the past 15 years.
Three of them were great flights. One was so-so. One was on the edge, can't say I enjoyed it at all.
For that last one: I should have paid closer attention to the actual conditions of the day, and
chosen not fly, even though it would blow a day of leave.

Hopefully that's clearer???

MarkC

[rasmussenv]

I'm out. The scariest flight I ever had was when I had low penetration and wasn't sure I was going to make the LZ - and have video showing the glider shadow hitting the treetops showing how close they were below my feet - confirming the logic of that fear.

The 1057 am NOAA update for the Baltimore/Washington area says: BRISK NW WIND 15-25 MPH. COLD AIR ALOFT /H8 TEMPS BELOW FREEZING/ YIELDING STEEP PBL LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR STRONGER WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH TO FREQUENTLY MIX DOWN TO THE SFC BY MID-MRNG.

That bit about mixing down to the surface caught my attention. The 'tonight' forecast says that the higher winds will stay above the 'boundary' level, but I'm not sure when and how high that is.

I've spent a good bit of yesterday evening and this morning trying trying to learn to read the winds aloft info, and right now am seeing on ADDS at nostepper winds above 20 knots at 2500 ft MSL and higher through midnight, and 19 knots or higher at 1700 ft above msl till 8pm local. And WS is around 2000, as I understand it. The NOAA soundings JAVA site is consistent with that.

I am an H2 flying a Falcon and it just seems that all signs are telling me to wait for a more benign day. I was excited about the nice mix of H2s that were going to be there, and I'll be jealous of those of you who have good flights if the "Woodstock Effect" prevails and I miss out. And it will add to my education about forecast versus reality, but I don't think today is the right day for me.

I hate to miss out on the Trick-or-treaters - but may do so Sunday. Hugh - you sounded pretty confident that you were going to go somewhere then. I'll watch the boards to see what develops.

Valerie

PS: MarkC - were any of those flights that you liked in a day with 30 knot gusts in a Falcon?

[markc]

PS: MarkC - were any of those flights that you liked in a day with 30 knot gusts in a Falcon?

No, those flights I mentioned were all on VG gliders Valerie. If I were flying a single surface
with a forecast like today's, there would have to be some very convincing signs of a
major back-off late in the day for me to consider going. Otherwise, the probability of burning a
vacation day and not being able to fly would keep me home.

MarkC

[chuckok]

The general forecast has backed down a little ...

Winchester is still reading 20+ mph dropping off after 4:00 PM toward the lower 10 to 15

Woodstock has dropped to 10 to 20 with a decline to the lower end of 10 to 15 after 3:00

Looks like the ground winds are dropping quickly after 4:00

[uplandann]

H-2's were wise to stay put winds were too high (I'd say 20+ with higher gusts?), although Jesse, Dan T., and Hugh got off the mtn. sometime after 5:15p durring a lull (6-16). I left around 5:45. I think everyone else bagged it... Did anyone else manage to launch after that?

I am hoping some people want to go to WS on Sunday?? Because, I can go and be there around noon!

Ann

[jyoder111]

Bacil and I arrived around 9am to find HUGE cloud banks stacked up in waves over the valley. It was quite an awesome sight driving out 66E as the sun rose and lit up the underside of the "mountains in the air." At launch, hell- in the parking lot! it was quite strong and the clouds were low and scary. We walked out the old launch for fun and then sat in the cars for a while to warm up. Bacil left around 11am without flying and I took a nap till Hugh showed up around 1pm(?). It had backed down a bit and the clouds were dissipating so we decided to put some cars in the LZ, where we met Joe Schad. When we got back up, Jon and Amy had arrived and the wind had ramped up a bit. Dan T and some others showed up and we all shared a cold and miserable afternoon setting up and shivering around in hopes of a back down later on. Joe almost got lured into the air by a sucker loll, but ended up breaking down on top.
Around 5pm it started backing down and Dan T had a nice launch right into an elevator. Wind gust in the slot was less than 18mph by this point and Hugh cleared me to launch. I had a good launch and got up above the ridge right away. There was lift all the way out to the creek, so I stayed way out in front and had a great soaring flight- a little over an hour. Penetration wasn't a serious problem, though I had to fly just faster than trim to avoid negative ground track. Made staying in the lift easy. I watched the sun set over the western ridge and then landed to join Dan T and Hugh in the LZ. I had put a spot in the LZ and managed to land well within 20ft of it. Awesome end to a long cold day!!! +dinner at Christina's Cafe with live music.