Woodstock Tues 10-21

[DanTuck]

Anybody thinking about it?

[RedBaron]

I am...

[theflyingdude]

The Woodstock, VA forecast for Tuesday on weather.com:

Windy. Partly cloudy skies early followed by a few showers in the afternoon. High 64F. Winds WNW at 20 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 30%.

Sounds soarable - Woo-hoo!!

[RedBaron]

Bollocks, who's going?

[tdilisio]

Winds WNW at 20 to 30 mph

...

... hmmm... ... H2-able? Or "should" the Woodstock effect slow that down a bit?

I'm willing to go if there will be an observer there willing to throw.

[DanTuck]

NOAA's forecast looks a lot nicer...

[RedBaron]

50% chance Kinsley and I are going, he's an observer...

[tdilisio]

I'll check this page in the AM before making the call to take the day off. Need to be on the ground and packed up by 4PM for other obligations. Hopefully the day will cooperate.

[XCanytime]

The front is predicted to pass during midday, and the wind is not predicted to throttle down until after sunset. Bacil

[lbunner]

Janni, I don't mean to be a naysayer but it does look to be strong conditions at Woodstock on Tuesday. If you do go, make sure you don't talk yourself into flying if the conditions are marginal (ie. too strong). Be safe.

[tdilisio]

It's 0630 and already blowing 5-10 MPH in Stephens City.... anyone going? Time? The day might be a little much for H2's...???

[DanTuck]

Okay, it's gonna be too strong for my Falcon. I'll be at work

If anyone goes, have fun and be safe.

[RedBaron]

It's off.

[PKane]

Wednesday?

[tdilisio]

I'm game if the garage door installers get here early... hopefully they'll finish by noon-ish.

[XCanytime]

I have to comment here on what seems to be a disconnect with important information. Where the disconnect occurs is unknown. The recommended operating limitations for novice (Hang II) pilots from the USHPA is that they should fly in smooth winds of 18 MPH or less and gusty winds of 11 MPH. These limitations should not be exceeded until the pilot has acquired a full understanding of the potential problems and dangers involved in exceeding these recommended operating limitations.
Today's conditions at Woodstock were very strong, and no Hang II had any business even thinking about going out in today's conditions. The front did not even pass through the area until the late afternoon hours. In theory, the strongest winds are occurring now and will continue for a while. It is imperative to be conservative in your judgement of appropriate flying conditions for your rating and for your experience.

Bacil

[Dan T]

I have to weigh in with Bacil on this one. A forecast of 20-30 is a blow out even at Woodstock. You HIIs shouldn't even be thinking about flying on those days unless it's forecast to drop off markedly before sunset.

Ask some of the old timers about the guy who crashed there under the eye of an expert observer (instructor, not any that you know) in those conditions and is in a coma to this very day, 12 years later if he hasn't died yet.

I want to see you all alive and healthy when I get home.

[DanTuck]

Since this appears to be becoming more of an issue, I'd like to clarify.
On NOAA's website, I saw a forecast that showed winds of 14-17 mph with a 9% chance of precipitation.
It did NOT show 20-30 mph winds nor did it show a 30% chance of rain.
I don't know of any H2's that would try to fly in those conditions and if they are out there, I'm certainly not one of them.
Thank you.

[theflyingdude]

Even the NOAA forecast for that day sounds a little strong for H2's, Dan. Since those are surface wind forecasts, you should probably add 5 mph to account for launch elevation and expect it to be even stronger above the mountain. Also, that doesn't take into account the gust factor which can be considerable in post-frontal conditions.

You and pilots like you are the future of our sport. Strive to become an old pilot - not a bold pilot.

JR

[DanTuck]

Listen, I appreciate the fact that everyone is just concerned with keeping the 2's safe. But a 14-17mph forecast *at Woodstock* is not ridiculous for a not-brand-new H-2 to be *thinking* of flying. 20-30 is out there but that's not what I saw. I do understand that that is a surface level forecast and that you can expect an extra 5 at launch and more above the mountain. But even in my limited experience, I have also been present on multiple days at Woodstock when the forecast has been perfect, and it's dead on launch. So I don't think that thinking about it and asking a question is crazy or reckless. All I was looking for was a simple 'Yes, here's why' or 'No, here's why.' C'mon guys, I'm pretty sure that's what we H-2's are supposed to do. Ask questions. And I really don't want to feel like asking a question is going to get me chastized.
edit: I did also appreciate the advice that was given and explanation of what was occuring weatherwise.Thanks!

[davidtheamazing1]

What is the most difference anyone has observed between the wind forecast/observation and the conditions on launch? In other words what is the most amount of wind differential that could ever be attributed to the "woodstock" effect?

I have observed 10mph wind on I66 turn out to be L&V at woodstock tower.

[Matthew]

Ugh!! I have found the best forecast for Woodstock is NW 15-20. The Woodstock Effect, being sheltered by the Dolly Sods Plateau, usually means that winds at Woodstock are about 10mph less than forecast for the region. If you look at current conditions, on a windy day, it will be blowing 15-20+ all day at Winchester and barely blowing 5-10 at Staunton. I realize that Staunton/Shenandoah is a fair bit away from Woodstcok. However, it also is subject to the so-called Woodstock Effect. Still, I've gone out on days when it was forecast 15-20 in the morning only to find it honking at launch by the time I set up and hear that the 11am updated forecast has changed to 20-25 with gusts to 30+. So my advice is to check the forecast again once you arrive at Woodstock so you don't get suckered off into building conditions, which has happened to too many pilots.

Matthew

[mcgowantk]

I have had the best luck on a 10-20 forecast at Woodstock. I have been blown out more often than not at 15-20 and it is often calm with a 10-15 forecast. My ideal wind to observe at launch is 5-10 mph because you only need a little wind on that steep high ridge to make it soarable. 10-15 on launch there can be quite strong for flying.

With respect to other posts, I think it is reasonable to think about flying just about any day of the year, even on birthdays, anniversaries and holidays such as Christmas. You may decide to go or not go, but you will only know the conditions when at launch. I have had more than one great day at Woodstock when many decided it would be blown out and didn't go. I would not be surprised if new pilots were unsure about when it might be worth a look, so I don't think the question is out of line.

I think the risks that people are reacting to is that a pilot would fly in too strong conditions because he is there, or be fooled into thinking conditions are ok when in fact conditions are strong. But those risks exist every time we go out and likely catch more pilots than we would like to admit. This also reminds me that a direct email or better yet a phone call may be better ways of communicating here.

With that said, I hope we all get some air time soon!

Tom McGowan

[billyvaughn]

Thanks Tom!
You continue to be a calm voice of reason and experience. Excellent discussion, complete with new guy questions and older, "big dog" pilots weighing in. While being at a flying site with a glider greatly increases the likelihood of actually flying, it doesn't mean you HAVE to launch...though we all know the temptation is greater than if you were still on the sofa. I would encourage hang II folks to invest a days worth of effort on a strong post frontal day to observe conditions on launch, and not on the computer screen. Respect for increasing conditions is best learned by watching the freight train cycles come through with your glider safely zipped in its bag.
Stay safe, and inquisitive
Billy Vaughn

[brianvh]

Funny...reading through the thread I saw H2's first asking if it might be okay conditions, then deciding BY THEMSELVES it wouldn't be okay, THEN a bunch of more experienced pilots piling on saying they were being unsafe. They'd already decided not to fly, guys!

All they did is go through the normal pilot weather cycle of hopeful, hopeful....aw rats. Lecturing was a little uncalled for.